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Forecast Discussion for MFR NWS Office 
000
FXUS66 KMFR 072143 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...07/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A SPLITTING SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...
AND THE MEDFORD CWA IS MOSTLY IN THE GAP BETWEEN THEM. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
RIDGES. REPORTED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH COAST...COAST RANGE...AND WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU
COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM PST TODAY
FOR THE SHASTA VALLEYS.

EXPECT MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY THE WEAKENING AND
SPLITTING SHORT WAVE ALOFT THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME AREAS...ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
COASTAL RANGE ABOVE BROOKINGS...AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST...BRINGING OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRYING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND THE SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND IT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE DIRECTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE MEDFORD CWA...INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF A
WEAKENING FRONT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN.

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING SYSTEMS. SO...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OVER THE WEST SIDE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE
EAST SIDE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT ONCE AGAIN TIMING IS A QUESTION...AND IT MAY NOT LAST
TOO LONG AS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. BEYOND THIS EVENING...LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PST
        SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/16/06

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion